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Flag Algeria Algerian Dinar (DZD) 79.715
Flag Albania Albania Lek (ALL) 103.63
Flag Argentina Argentine Peso (ARS) 8.1684
Flag Australia Australian Dollar (AUD) 1.0621
Flag Bahamas Bahamian Dollar (BSD) 1
Flag Bahrain Bahraini Dinar (BHD) 0.377
Flag Bangladesh Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) 77.63
Flag Barbados Barbados Dollar (BBD) 2
Flag Belarus Belarussian Ruble (BYR) 10290
Flag Belize Belize Dollar (BZD) 1.995
Flag Bolivia Bolivian Boliviano (BOB) 6.91
Flag Botswana Botswana Pula (BWP) 8.8574
Flag Brazil Brazilian Real (BRL) 2.2204
Flag Bulgaria Bulgarian Lev (BGN) 1.4568
Flag Canada Canadian Dollar (CAD) 1.0746
Flag Benin CFA Franc BCEAO (XOF) 487.33
Flag Chile Chilean Peso (CLP) 563.6
Flag Colombia Colombian Peso (COP) 1847.5
Flag Comoros Comoro Franc (KMF) 365.4085
Flag Bosnia-And-Herzegovina Convertible Marks (BAM) 1.4559
Flag Croatia Croatian Kuna (HRK) 5.6635
Flag Czech-Republic Czech Koruna (CZK) 20.4125
Flag Denmark Danish Krone (DKK) 5.5388
Flag Dominican-Republic Dominican Peso (DOP) 43.58
Flag Anguilla East Caribbean Dollar (XCD) 2.7
Flag Egypt Egyptian Pound (EGP) 7.1502
Flag El-Salvador El Salvador Colon (SVC) 8.747
Flag Estonia Estonian Kroon (EEK) 0
Flag European-Union Euro (EUR) 0.7427
Flag Fiji Fiji Dollar (FJD) 1.843
Flag Georgia Georgian Lari (GEL) 1.7532
Flag Guatemala Guatemalan Quetzal (GTQ) 7.7985
Flag Guinea Guinea Franc (GNF) 7035
Flag Hong-Kong Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) 7.7501
Flag Hungary Hungarian Forint (HUF) 228.68
Flag Iceland Iceland Krona (ISK) 115.3
Flag India Indian Rupee (INR) 60.125
Flag Indonesia Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) 11585
Flag Iran Iranian Rial (IRR) 26226
Flag Iraq Iraqi Dinar (IQD) 1164.9
Flag Jamaica Jamaican Dollar (JMD) 112.45
Flag Japan Japanese Yen (JPY) 101.817
Flag Jordan Jordanian Dinar (JOD) 0.7081
Flag Kazakhstan Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT) 183.53
Flag Kenya Kenyan Shilling (KES) 87.8
Flag Kuwait Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) 0.2828
Flag Latvia Latvian Lats (LVL) 0.5217
Flag Lebanon Lebanese Pound (LBP) 1511
Flag Lithuania Lithuanian Litas (LTL) 2.5645
Flag Macedonia Macedonian Denar (MKD) 45.475
Flag Malawi Malawi Kwacha (MWK) 396.26
Flag Malaysia Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 3.1745
Flag Maldives Maldives Rufiyaa (MVR) 15.4
Flag Mauritania Mauritanian Ouguiya (MRO) 290.5
Flag Mauritius Mauritius Rupee (MUR) 30.53
Flag Mexico Mexican Peso (MXN) 12.9528
Flag Moldova Moldovan Leu (MDL) 13.905
Flag Mongolia Mongolian Tugrik (MNT) 1839.5
Flag Morocco Moroccan Dirham (MAD) 8.3074
Flag Namibia Namibian Dollar (NAD) 10.536
Flag Nepal Nepalese Rupee (NPR) 96.98
Flag Israel New Israeli Sheqel (ILS) 3.4174
Flag Cook-Islands New Zealand Dollar (NZD) 1.1671
Flag Nigeria Nigerian Naira (NGN) 162.05
Flag Norway Norwegian Krone (NOK) 6.204
Flag Pakistan Pakistan Rupee (PKR) 98.66
Flag Papua-New-Guinea Papua-new.guinea Kina (PGK) 2.4399
Flag Paraguay Paraguay Guarani (PYG) 4328.5601
Flag Peru Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2.787
Flag Philippines Philippine Peso (PHP) 43.37
Flag Poland Polisch Zloty (PLN) 3.0761
Flag United-Kingdom Pound Sterling (GBP) 0.5887
Flag Qatar Qatari Rial (QAR) 3.6406
Flag Romania Romanian New Leu (RON) 3.2721
Flag Russia Russian Ruble (RUB) 35.0865
Flag Rwanda Rwanda Franc (RWF) 690.5
Flag Samoa Samoan Tala (WST) 2.3034
Flag Saudi-Arabia Saudi Arabian Riyal (SAR) 3.7505
Flag Seychelles Seychelles Rupee (SCR) 12.3
Flag Singapore Singapore Dollar (SGD) 1.2411
Flag Slovakia Slovak Koruna (SKK) 0
Flag Solomon-Islands Solomon Islands Dollar (SBD) 7.2182
Flag South-Africa South African Rand (ZAR) 10.5333
Flag South-Korea South Korean Won (KRW) 1030.1801
Flag Sri-Lanka Sri Lanka Rupee (LKR) 130.25
Flag Swaziland Swaziland Lilangeni (SZL) 10.526
Flag Sweden Swedish Krona (SEK) 6.8256
Flag Liechtenstein Swiss Franc (CHF) 0.9025
Flag Taiwan Taiwan Dollar (TWD) 29.965
Flag Tanzania Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) 1658.5
Flag Thailand Thai Baht (THB) 31.845
Flag Tonga Tonga Pa'anga (TOP) 1.8469
Flag Trinidad-And-Tobago Trinidad and Tobago Dollar (TTD) 6.3763
Flag Tunisia Tunisian Dinar (TND) 1.7256
Flag Turkey Turkish Lira (TRY) 2.0921
Flag United-Arab-Emirates UAE Dirham (AED) 3.673
Flag Uganda Uganda Shilling (UGX) 2625
Flag Ukraine Ukraine Hryvnia (UAH) 11.6493
Flag United-States US Dollar (USD) 1
Flag Vanuatu Vanuatu Vatu (VUV) 93.6
Flag Vietnam Vietnam Dong (VND) 21213
Flag Yemen Yemeni Rial (YER) 214.905
Flag China Yuan Renminbi (CNY) 6.1955
Flag Zambia Zabian Kwacha (ZMK) 5189.5

Seeking Alpha Dollar/Currencies stocks   RSS

Sunday, 10 October 2010, 12:08 GMT
Currency War Battlefield Tactics
Rogue Economist submits:
Currency War Battlefield TacticsAlright. This has been called an outright war, gentlemen. There is no more sense being coy about it, so let’s recognize the battlefield tactics for what they are. For it is clear that this currency war is not just a mere act of policy (you wish!), but a true global trade statement – a continuation of trade policy by other means (sorry Col. Clausewitz).

Developed country with trade deficit
Complete Story »


Sunday, 10 October 2010, 10:20 GMT
Week in Review and Preview: In the Midst of a Devalue-to-Deter-Deflation Conflagration
Soos Global Capital submits:
This article is a slightly different version of my weekly “Setting Up for the Opening Bell” series. It combines a review of this week’s activity with a preview of next week’s, and is supplemented with a thought-provoking sharing of actual positions along with key ideas that are driving our investment decisions.
All week long I’ve been trumpeting the horn of “political will”, arguing that the markets face a heightened level of risk overall largely due to the question surrounding whether or not politicians (and in this, I broadly include all financial officials with policy implication jobs) would do as they say…or not. In colloquial terms: would they ‘walk the talk’ or not?!
The key to knowing what currency exposure to tolerate in one’s portfolio, for example, is now, more than ever, driven by how you assess the likelihood of countries such as Japan, US, China and the EU getting together to multi-laterally deal with what is quickly becoming an all-out currency war of “devaluation-to-deter-deflation”.
It was challenging to have these trumpeted sounds resonate while the world anticipated the NFP data release, being that consensus, rightly, holds that the problem in the US is about three things: jobs, jobs and jobs!

And the skittishness of markets was probably most evident on Tuesday when the market soared almost 200 points largely due to a slight uptick in Non-Manufacturing ISM data, an outsized move for a number that is not your usual market moving factoid! That market reaction led me to publish a giant "caveat emptor" within which I had the following graph (click to enlarge) that points out just how modest this up-move in Non-Mftg ISM was and therefore just how seemingly absurd was the market’s response to it!

Complete Story »


Sunday, 10 October 2010, 9:34 GMT
U.S., EU Banking Crisis: The Other 'Race to the Bottom'
Cliff Wachtel submits:
Key Market Drivers For The Prior and Coming Week:
Over the past week, the term ‘the race to the bottom’ has referred to the competitive currency devaluation by various states as means of boosting exports and gaining growth at the expense of others.
Regular readers know I’ve believed that the EU’s sovereign debt and banking crisis outweighed any other threat to global financial markets, and thus made the USD a better bet over the longer term than the Euro. That’s no longer clear.
Friday’s US jobs report highlighted how budget struggles on the state level represent another systemic risk from the US. The past week also saw a new potential systemic risk from the US – evidence of widespread systematic fraud in foreclosure processing that presents yet another threat to the recovery of the US banking and real estate sectors.
PRIOR WEEK
New US Stimulus Expectations, Other Anti-USD Forces Are THE Global Market Driver For The Second Straight Week.
Expectations for new US stimulus were again the key global market driver for the second straight week.
Forces feeding this sentiment included:
  • NY Fed President William Dudley’s call for further policy stimulus saying that the unemployment and inflation rates in the US are “unacceptable”. The message is that the economic data is already bad enough to justify new stimulus.
  • Mixed US data climaxing in a poor monthly US jobs report. Jobs, spending, and inflation are the key metrics that the Fed is watching, so the jobs report was especially significant for raising expectations for new quantitative easing.
Ramifications included:
  • Risk Assets Higher On Rising Risk Appetite:This rising risk appetite created its own pressure on the safe-haven USD, as did Chinese comments supporting the chief USD alternative, the EUR.
  • The combined effects of new stimulus expectations and rising risk appetite meant USD hedges like commodities and currencies moved higher.
  • BoJ New Stimulus Fails To Lower The Yen Despite Rising Risk Appetite
Friday’s Bad US Jobs News Is Good News
We warned this could happen last week:
  • Markets believe bad jobs data raises chances of new US stimulus, which it believes will in turn push stocks higher, thus bad news becomes good news
  • Much of the decline came from state and local governments, highlighting their growing funding problems, which represent another potential systemic risk to the US and thus global financial system
  • Financial Media Focuses On ’Currency War’
Like the EU crisis, this was building long before it became a focus of the financial media. The clear catalyst was the FOMC’s statement over 2 weeks ago. New US stimulus meant that now the central banks of the 3 largest economies were actively working to devalue their currencies as a means of growing at the expense of their neighbors.
NOTEWORTHY BUT NOT MARKET MOVING
Here are some key events that didn’t move markets but were still noteworthy or could suddenly become market moving soon.
  • US Jobs Reports Highlight US State Fiscal Crisis
While private sector hiring was up, mostly from health care, that gain was more than countered by job losses from state and local governments NOT related to temporary census jobs terminating. Many have been warning that the US has another crisis brewing from widespread insolvency risks on the state level. This past week high-profile analyst Meredith Whitney spoke on CNBC here about how insolvency on the state level threatens systemic risk from the US.
  • US Earnings: Big Names Mostly Meet or Beat Expectations

COMING WEEK
  • US Retail Sales, CPI Data
These are the other key metrics the Fed watches. Neither is expected to be strong enough to alter expectations that more stimulus is on the way. However expectations are so strongly tilted towards stimulus that they could be easily disappointed by either the timing or size of coming QE.
  • US Earnings Season Picks Up Pace
Earnings reporting season starts to pick up next week, including marquee names such as Intel (INTC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Google (GOOG), and General Electric (GE).
  • Continued Central Bank Currency Spin
  • The Fed
  • The Bank of England
  • The ECB: EUR Longs Beware
The point here is that whenever it chooses, all the ECB need do to send the EUR plunging is to be a bit less active in a bond auction of one of the peripheral economies like Ireland, and allow it to look like a ‘near failure.’ EUR longs may well be riskier now than many believe.

WILDCARDS
Complete Story »


Sunday, 10 October 2010, 8:20 GMT
Crude Oil's Next Major Resistance at $87 a Barrel
Dian L. Chu submits:
Crude Oil hit a high of $84.09 on Thursday morning before investors sold into the rally in all commodities before the volatile jobs report on Friday morning. The shorts pushed Crude to a weekly low of $80.30 early Friday morning, which was a nice buying opportunity, as Crude Oil closed the electronic session on Friday at $82.84.

After the jobs report came in within expectations, there was substantial fund buying back in all the commodities across the board, with the thought that the still weak job market mandates the Fed to start the QE2 Program in a serious manner.
Complete Story »


Sunday, 10 October 2010, 8:10 GMT
Is Mr Geithner in a Position to Make Demands on China?
Clive Corcoran submits:
The following "initiative" from Mr. Geithner follows on from a theme articulated earlier in the week, in which the older and supposedly richer (in fact, the most indebted) economies are prepared to grant more power to the newer and less affluent (in fact, surplus economies with huge currency reserves and savings) economies in the G20, with respect to IMF voting rights.


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The United States has linked a faster rise in China's currency to a deal that would give the Asian country more sway at the International Monetary Fund. In a speech to the IMF's governing council on Saturday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said any agreement to give emerging market economies more voting power at the IMF "needs to be accompanied with more progress by countries, particularly the surplus countries, towards more market-oriented exchange rate policies and policies that will reduce reliance on exports and strengthen domestic demand." The top Chinese representative at the IMF talks, Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of China's central bank, has already rejected any link between the two issues. The U.S. has been seeking new levers to force China to let its currency rise.

Complete Story »


Sunday, 10 October 2010, 7:47 GMT
Everything's Going Bernanke's Way
Bruce Krasting submits:
Last Sunday night I wrote about the coming week:

If next Friday the Buck is lower across the board and the BoJ is a bit bloodied Ben Bernanke will light a cigar.

Complete Story »


Sunday, 10 October 2010, 3:40 GMT
Top 5 Graphs of the Week: Money, Jobs Dominate
Econ Grapher submits:
This week we look at some of the monetary policy decisions during the past week (Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Europe, UK, Philippines). Then we review some interesting data points from the US; non-manufacturing PMI, consumer credit, and the nonfarm payrolls report. Then we finish up with a look at the strong employment numbers in Australia.

1. Monetary Policy Review
Among the central banks announcing monetary policy decisions last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its rate at 4.50%, the Central bank of Indonesia held at 6.50%, the Bank of Japan decreased from 0.10% to between 0 and 0.10%, Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas held at 4.00%, the European Central Bank held at 1.00%, and the Bank of England held at 0.50%. So all quiet really except for japan who also announced a 5 trillion yen quantitative easing program where it would buy bonds, REITs, and even shares in an attempt to ease further and stimulate the economy. The close call was Australia, which is likely to raise at their next meeting as the Australian economy goes from strength to strength (more on this later).
Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 20:22 GMT
Today in Commodities: Market Vulnerability
Matthew Bradbard submits:
There are too many equity, metal bulls and dollar bears to see a continuation of the recent move… only my opinion. We are still operating under the influence that Crude oil prices are moving higher but we reserve the right to change our mind on a settlement above $84 in the November contract. We’re suggesting clients remain on the sidelines, but if forced into the market we think a $5-7 move lower will come before a $5-7 move higher. The action in natural gas convinced me to hang on with clients today, but as we’ve stated of late, positions are mixed between November and December and time is not on our side. We do expect a 10% squeeze but from what level?
It appears we will have a strong finish to the week in indices, but on a disappointing jobs number… go figure. We remain short with clients in November ES puts. Perhaps a light trading week will get prices back in line next week, which would mean a lower trade.
Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 19:53 GMT
The Currency Trilemma
Edward Harrison submits:
Morgan Stanley has an interesting piece out today, arguing there is no ‘currency war’… yet. Win Thin made some points on this score yesterday, pointing to real effective exchange rates in developing countries. Morgan Stanley’s Manoj Pradhan has a different take, citing the lack of emerging market retaliation (see Global Monetary Analyst: QE2, March 4, 2009):

Brazil’s Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, recently sparked a lively discussion by saying that an ‘international currency war’ has broken out. Most EM currencies have been appreciating throughout 2010…

Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 19:43 GMT
Currency ETFs Get Ready to Rumble
Tom Lydon submits:
Currency traders are having a hard time keeping up as an “international currency war” threatens to destabilize the currency status quo. Despite efforts to keep currencies low, some currency exchange traded funds may decline as currencies continue to appreciate.
Dr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated “there is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon,” reports Julia Kollewe for The Sydney Morning Herald. “Such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery. Any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact,” Dr. Strauss-Kahn adds.
Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 17:25 GMT
Another Catalyst for Gold and Silver Shares?
Wall Street Cheat Sheet submits:
By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
If you’ve followed our work you know how useful intermarket analysis can be when deciphering future movements and trends in the precious metals complex. Years ago when I would analyze gold I would only follow gold. Now I am aware of a wealth of markets that can be analyzed, which can help provide an outlook for precious metals.
Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 13:28 GMT
Currency War: A View From the Trenches
Marc Chandler submits:

Recent weeks have seen much talk about "currency wars". This talk suggests that many countries are seeking the devaluation of their currencies in order to promote their exports, which in turn forces other countries to respond with similar efforts. It harkens back to the disastrous beggar-thy-neighbor policy that was seen between the two world wars. While the foreign exchange market is one of many arenas in which nation states compete for advantage, calling what is happening now a currency war is not only wrong, it is dangerous.

No Devaluations
Complete Story »

Friday, 08 October 2010, 12:53 GMT
Gold and Silver Almost Go Parabolic as Currency Wars Heat Up
Dr. Duru submits:
Talk of currency wars have heated up as several events have converged to make the public increasingly aware of the on-going competitive devaluations around the globe. The increasing clamor came ahead of an IMF meeting Thursday and a G7 meeting this weekend where the topic of global trade and currency rates are hot topics. It is probably no coincidence that gold and silver started to go parabolic ahead of these meetings. The euro’s test of the 1.40 level against the U.S. dollar seemed to be a sufficient catalyst to cool off the rocket fuel quickly and abruptly. Even oil reversed sharply on Thursday. These moves have created “bearish engulfing” patterns which typically signal the end of a rally.


Gold and Silver Almost Go Parabolic as Currency Wars Heat Up
Gold stopped short of going parabolic

Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 9:17 GMT
Race to the Bottom
Greg Feirman submits:

It is an extraordinary measure for a central bank, particularly the purchase of financial assets to encourage the decline in risk premiums. To be explicit on that point and to extensively influence market interest rates and risk premiums, the Bank judges it necessary to establish a program on its balance sheet through which the bank will purchase various financial assets.
- The Bank Of Japan, “Comprehensive Monetary Easing”, October 5

Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 7:37 GMT
Will the Weak Dollar and Record Gold Prices Put Pressure on the Fed?
Jeb Handwerger submits:
In a recent article I wrote about how the Federal Reserve and Washington D.C. will do anything possible to save the markets from a bear market before the November election. Unemployment is high, defaults on homes and credit cards are rising and record amounts of taxpayer’s money have gone to bail out failed banks. The last thing Washington wanted was another bear market before a November election. An emergency job bill was passed and the Fed started pumping money into the system. Now we are beginning to see the outcome of the Fed’s actions as the world looks at a deteriorating dollar and the tension that surfaces with volatile exchange rates. Recent job bills and quantitative easing may help tomorrow’s job report which could put some hawkish pressure on The Fed to change their stance.
I believe over the next few weeks volatility could increase as a major shift in Washington may occur. Although the equity markets are up, the dollar and the economy have not shown improvement. The “Tea Party” movement and politicians who push tax cuts and less government spending are gaining recognition. I would not be surprised if there is a shift in power which may be bullish for the dollar or another intervention from overseas to continue purchasing the dollar. Tomorrow’s job report could provide relief to the oversold dollar as additional government jobs were created through recent legislation and massive cash infusion from The Fed. The dollar could have a dead cat bounce.
Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 6:49 GMT
Is a Currency War on the Way?
Kurt Brouwer submits:
I have made it clear that I believe the U.S. Treasury wants a weaker dollar. For more on that, see U.S. Treasury seeks weaker dollar. In addition to the post itself, the comment thread is very interesting and worth reading.
For different reasons, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are trying to weaken their respective currencies. China is allowing its currency, the yuan, to strengthen, but not quickly enough for the U.S.
Complete Story »


Friday, 08 October 2010, 6:35 GMT
Goldman Forecasts U.S. Dollar Set for Sharp Decline
Edward Harrison submits:
As a result of the Federal Reserve’s next round of quantitative easing, Goldman Sachs is predicting a sharp slump in the US dollar’s value against other major currencies. In particular, the dollar is expected to weaken to $1.79 against the British pound over the next six months, $1.85 over the next year. The dollar will also weaken against the euro to as low as $1.55, according to Goldman. This is far cry from Dollar-euro parity. If the dollar does weaken to these levels, it will likely fan trade friction.
Notable in this discussion is that the all of the adjustment for US dollar currency debasement falls on the floating rate currencies like the euro, the pound, the Swiss franc and the yen. China’s currency, because of its fixed peg to the US dollar, will depreciate as well, setting up tensions with Japan and Europe.
Complete Story »


Thursday, 07 October 2010, 22:24 GMT
Escalating Currency Trading
John Lounsbury submits:
Vincent Fernando and Kamelia Angelova write at Business Insider Clusterstock:


Total global currency trading volume has increased by 221% since 2001. Nearly four trillion dollars are now traded every day, on average, which is like trading the value of the entire U.S. economy... every 3.7 days.

Complete Story »


Thursday, 07 October 2010, 21:39 GMT
Should Investors Be Worried About a Dollar Plunge?
Benzinga submits:
By Ronald Weisenstein
The U.S. dollar hit 15-year lows against the Japanese Yen Thursday, after data on U.S. unemployment benefits did little to reduce expectations that the Federal Reserve will resort to more quantitative easing.
Complete Story »


Thursday, 07 October 2010, 20:24 GMT
Today in Commodities: Market Vindication
Matthew Bradbard submits:
Today could mark a key reversal for several markets, including but not limited to the US dollar, metals and energies. Oil reversed from these same levels in August… will history repeat itself? In recent blogs we hinted at this, and on confirmation tomorrow Crude will likely move back to the 50 day MA; in November at $77.70. If that is the case, we’ve seen an interim top in the distillates as well; that would drag heating oil and RBOB 12-15 cents lower. A bearish AGA report prompted natural gas to lose 4.4-6.25% depending on the month. Some clients have thrown in the towel; others will likely be out in the coming sessions if we do not move north from here. I feel we’re close to a bottom, being the sentiment is so bearish, but as the saying goes, markets can be irrational more than most investors can remain solvent. What really irks me is that Goldman is forecasting a 20-25% advance in natural gas in the coming months and clients will likely get out at the bottom. Unfortunately sometimes that is the way the cookie crumbles. We will advise clients to re-establish positions once an interim bottom is established.
The next leg in indices will be determined by the NFP tomorrow. We’ve positioned several clients short the S&P via November put spreads.
Complete Story »

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