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Forex Articles on Seeking Alpha   RSS

Wednesday, 22 October 2014, 6:54 GMT
Australia 200 - Within Reach Of Key 5400 Level
By Dean Popplewell:
By Stuart McPhee
Australia 200 for Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Since the beginning of September the Australia 200 Index has declined strongly from its multi-year high after running into resistance around 5650 back to enter its previously established trading range between 5400 and 5500, before falling further below 5200 and to an eight month low around 5120 a couple of weeks ago. It has however enjoyed a solid resurgence over the last week or so after getting much needed support from the 5200 level and it is now within reach of getting back within the previous range above 5400. Earlier last week it received solid support from the 5100 level which saw it rally well in the last few days to close out last week. Several weeks ago the 5400 level was called upon to offer support as the index desperately tried to stay in touch with its range, however
Complete Story »


Wednesday, 22 October 2014, 5:17 GMT
AUD/USD Remains Below Resistance At 0.88
By Dean Popplewell:
By Stuart McPhee
AUD/USD for Wednesday, October 22, 2014
During the last few weeks the Australian dollar has done well to stop the bleeding and trade within a wide range roughly between 0.8650 and 0.88. Prior to that it had experienced a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650 and an eight month low in the process. Despite the current resistance at 0.88, it was able to move through to a two week high above 0.8900 a couple of weeks ago before recently falling sharply below 0.87 again. The resistance level at 0.88 remains a factor and is continuing to place downwards pressure on price, however more recently all eyes have turned on to the support level at 0.8650 to see if the Australian dollar can remain above it. Several weeks ago the Australian dollar found some much needed support at
Complete Story »


Tuesday, 21 October 2014, 21:57 GMT
The Perils Of FX Forecasts: Lessons From '94
By Stuart Parkinson:
I wrote in passing a while ago that, with the next move in U.S. monetary policy likely to be a tightening, but the next move in Euro-zone monetary policy likely to be an easing, that the next move in the dollar against the Euro seemed most likely to be upwards.
If you didn?t know it already, there?s no such thing as a sure thing in financial markets, and least of all where currencies are concerned. Here is what former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan had to say about currency forecasting back in 2004:

The inability to anticipate changes in supply and demand for a currency is at the root of the statistically robust finding that forecasting exchange rates has a success rate no better than that of forecasting the outcome of a coin toss.

(These were the days when Central Bankers, if they spoke at all, used to use 50 words
Complete Story »


Tuesday, 21 October 2014, 12:02 GMT
Central Banks In View After China Growth Surprise Fails To Lift Markets
By Dean Popplewell:
By Alfonso Esparza
Earlier today China released the official Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter. It came in at 7.3%; a slight improvement over the expected 7.2% but still the lowest print since 2009. The gain was not enough to dissuade the market about the China slowdown story as facts continue to accumulate against the Asian economy. The positives from the GDP numbers are the fact that the subdued stimulus by the Bank of China and housing rule relaxation seem to have paid off. The Fourth Plenum ended its second day of a four day meeting that is focused on the rule law. Chinese leaders are expected to introduce reforms that fight corruption and modernize the justice system which in turn will open up China for more foreign investment.
The EUR/USD continues to drive towards 1.29. Disappointing US Retail sales and global economic malaise have the market convinced that
Complete Story »


Tuesday, 21 October 2014, 8:13 GMT
Why The Dollar Could Resume Its Uptrend
By Andrew Sachais:
The U.S. dollar could continue to move higher over the coming months as the economy improves, leading to a greater likelihood the central bank raises rates. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEARCA:UUP) is up close to 6% since July as economic data in manufacturing and consumer sentiment trended higher. If the economic data continue to improve, it could open the door for the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate earlier than expected.
The Philadelphia Fed showed in October that its region is still growing at a strong pace, as well as experiencing a surge in new orders. On Thursday, the Philly Fed index dropped to 20.7 from 22.5 the month before, however, it managed to outperform analyst forecasts estimating only a 19.9 increase. "The October figure marks the second straight month of declines, still, any number over zero indicates expansion, while the index hit a three-year high
Complete Story »


Monday, 20 October 2014, 8:13 GMT
Australia 200 - Desperately Trying To Return To Above 5400
By Dean Popplewell:
By Stuart McPhee
Australia 200 for Monday, October 20, 2014
Since the beginning of September the Australia 200 Index has declined strongly from its multi-year high after running into resistance around 5650 back to enter its previously established trading range between 5400 and 5500, before falling further below 5200 and to an eight month low around 5120 a couple of weeks ago. It enjoyed support from the 5200 level and is still fighting hard to rally higher above 5200 after recently threatening to break through this level for the first time since February 2014. Earlier last week it received solid support from the 5100 level which saw it rally well in the last few days to close out last week. Several weeks ago the 5400 level was called upon to offer support as the index desperately tried to stay in touch with its range, however it fell through there before
Complete Story »


Monday, 20 October 2014, 7:02 GMT
AUD/USD - Steady Below Resistance At 0.88
By Dean Popplewell:
By Stuart McPhee
AUD/USD for Monday, October 20, 2014
During the few weeks the Australian dollar has done well to stop the bleeding and trade within a wide range roughly between 0.8650 and 0.88. Prior to that it had experienced a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650 and an eight month low in the process. Despite the current resistance at 0.88, it was able to move through to a two week high above 0.8900 a couple of weeks ago before recently falling sharply below 0.87 again. The resistance level at 0.88 remains a factor and is continuing to place downwards pressure on price, however more recently all eyes have turned on to the support level at 0.8650 to see if the Australian dollar can remain above it. Several weeks ago the Australian dollar found some much needed support at 0.8950
Complete Story »


Sunday, 19 October 2014, 15:19 GMT
Post-Taper Tantrum II: The Week Ahead
By Marc Chandler:
The prospects that the Federal Reserve would begin slowing its purchases sparked a market meltdown in 2013. The "taper tantrum", as it was dubbed, destabilized the capital markets. Now it is as if the markets have had a second tantrum, but this time US Treasuries rallied.
Falling market-based measures of inflation expectations, concerns about world growth prospects, and a strong dollar environment have seen the pendulum of market sentiment swing in favor of the persistence of disinflationary forces. That is why this week's September CPI report is important. While the weakness in energy prices will restrain the headline, the core rate is likely to remain firm, just below 2%. Higher housing costs and rents are behind the stickiness of the core.
There has been a longstanding narrative of an inflationary risk posed by the expansion of the Federal Reserve's. This was understood to mean something much more undesirable than a
Complete Story »


Sunday, 19 October 2014, 4:40 GMT
More Thoughts On The Price Action
By Marc Chandler:
After wild swings at midweek (October 15), the US dollar spent the last two sessions of the week consolidating. While we expect the Federal Reserve will not be distracted by the recent market turmoil, or the softening of some market-based measures of inflation expectations, and will announce the finishing of its asset purchases, we recognize that Bullard's comments cast a greater element of doubt. This doubt may prevent a resumption of the dollar's uptrend. Broad consolidation is more likely in the days ahead.
The dollar's advance sat on two legs: Positive developments in the US, that would lead to a Fed rate hike next year and negative developments outside the US. The second leg remains intact. The first leg has been shaken. We suspect that many have exaggerated the weakness of the US. We accept that the Fed's mandates are being approached, and that the drop in oil prices is
Complete Story »


Friday, 17 October 2014, 21:15 GMT
Week In FX Americas - U.S. Retail Sales Tackles USD Rally
By Dean Popplewell:
By Alfonso Esparza
One of the expected drivers of a US Economic recovery are consumers. In a week that will live down in history based on the size of the correction the US retail sales came in at -0.3% not a disaster in itself, but under the expected -0.1%. Consumers are still cautious about their spending. It will be interesting to see how low gasoline prices and even the introduction of the iPhone 6 plays into next month's figures.
The EUD/USD reversed the trend after the retail sales figures as it could mean a longer period of record low rates as it seemed the US economy could be losing steam. Global stock markets rebounded slightly after a dreadful week. There are signs of risk appetite creeping back into the market. The uncertainty created by negative economic data out of the US compounded with global growth forecast cuts earlier in the
Complete Story »


Friday, 17 October 2014, 12:30 GMT
Dueling Fed Members Send Mixed Messages, Chair Yellen To Get Last Word
By Dean Popplewell:
By Alfonso Esparza
Global stock markets rebounded slightly after a dreadful week. There are signs of risk appetite creeping back into the market. The uncertainty created by negative economic data out of the US compounded with global growth forecast cuts earlier in the month drove the market into a tailspin. Aggravating factors such as the Ebola health crisis, armed conflicts and political protests kept investors busy deciding their next steps. European markets show signs of life and the USD has rebounded as volatility subsides. All eyes on the market will be following Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as she takes the stage later this morning.
The Federal Reserve was present in the markets with three members delivering speeches yesterday: Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed and Narayana Kocherlakota president of the Minneapolis Fed. Lockhart focused on the labor market and stressed
Complete Story »


Friday, 17 October 2014, 8:35 GMT
Brief Correction For Overbought USD
By FX Analyst:
This is what Olivier Blanchard of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has to say about the United States and the United Kingdom:
"Among advanced countries, the United States and the United Kingdom in particular are leaving the financial crisis behind and achieving decent growth. Even for them however, potential growth is lower than it was in the early 2000s."
In its latest World Economic Outlook report titled, 'Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties' published this month of October 2014, the IMF provided the following projection:
(click to enlarge)
Source: IMF
These are independent confirmation of the relatively superior performance of the recovery as seen in the United States recently. The actual recovery has been better than expected with unemployment reaching 5.9% in September 2014. 1 year ahead of schedule.
The USD was in a range from October 2013 to April 2014 before it started to price in the recovery. It rose 9.78% in
Complete Story »


Friday, 17 October 2014, 8:17 GMT
Australia 200 - Continuing To Fight To Stay Above 5200
By Dean Popplewell:
By Stuart McPhee
Australia 200 for Friday, October 17, 2014
Since the beginning of September the Australia 200 Index has declined strongly from its multi-year high after running into resistance around 5650 back to enter its previously established trading range between 5400 and 5500, before falling further below 5200 and to an eight month low around 5120 to close out last week. It enjoyed support from the 5200 level and is still fighting hard to rally higher above 5200 after recently threatening to break through this level for the first time since February 2014. Earlier this week it received solid support from the 5100 level which saw it rally well in the last few days. Several weeks ago the 5400 level was called upon to offer support as the index desperately tried to stay in touch with its range, however it fell through there before rallying strongly back up to
Complete Story »


Friday, 17 October 2014, 4:36 GMT
AUD/USD - Resistance At 0.88 Stands Tall Again
By Dean Popplewell:
By Stuart McPhee
AUD/USD for Friday, October 17, 2014
During the last couple of weeks the Australian dollar has been able to stop the bleeding and trade within a wide range roughly between 0.8650 and 0.88. Prior to that it had experienced a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650 and an eight month low in the process. Despite the current resistance at 0.88, it was able to move through to a two week high above 0.8900 towards the end of last week before recently falling sharply below 0.87 again to finish out last week. The resistance level at 0.88 remains a factor and is continuing to place downwards pressure on price, however more recently all eyes have turned on to the support level at 0.8650 to see if the Australian dollar can remain above it. Several weeks ago the Australian
Complete Story »


Friday, 17 October 2014, 1:45 GMT
Near-Term Dollar Outlook
By Marc Chandler:
If the worst of the market panic is behind us, it is worthwhile exercise to see what the charts are saying about the dollar. One advantage of technical analysis is that the fundamental causes and considerations behind the large moves need not be determined.
As is often the case, the large market moves were likely over-determined in the sense of having many contributing factors. Market positioning after sustained market trends created vulnerabilities. The drop in oil prices, and fears that the global headwinds would derail the US economy, and postpone Fed tightening, or as the Fed's Bullard argued today, extend QE a bit longer.
In any event, the selling climax appears to have passed, and significant technical damage has been done to the US dollar. At the same time, the breaking of what appeared to have been a one-way bet is a salutary for medium and long-term investors who focus
Complete Story »


Thursday, 16 October 2014, 12:59 GMT
Fade The Pros - Buy The Pound
By MoodyFX:
The past few months have been turbulent, to say the least, for the Great British pound (NYSEARCA:FXB). The Scottish referendum, an overheated housing market, and currency volatility have driven headlines. In the midst of turbulent economic times, I recommended stepping back from the headlines and examining how the professionals are trading.
Commitment of Traders
In order to protect the market from manipulation, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires large traders to publish significant positions in the Commitment of Traders Report. This report provides powerful, actionable information to both average and institutional investor alike. I created the chart below to show the total long positions of money managers versus the GBP/USD (NYSEARCA:UUP) exchange rate.
At surface, there is nothing terribly impactful about this data. As you can see, there is a moderate correlation between exchange rate and total long positions. For example, from July 2013 through January 2014, traders added
Complete Story »


Thursday, 16 October 2014, 11:23 GMT
Storm Continues, Dollar Stabilizes
By Marc Chandler:
The global markets are struggling to regain some semblance of stability. The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses, and is modestly firmer. US 10-year Treasury yields have slipped back to near 2.0%, while the 10-year German bund yield has slipped to new record lows, below 75 bp. Peripheral bond yields are sharply higher 14-18 bp, though Greek bonds remain under sharp pressure, and the 10-year yield has jumped another 85 bp, which brings the five-session increase to almost 200 bp.
Of note, French bonds are not being dragged higher by the rally in bunds, but instead, yields are up six basis points. Given the logic of the German-French link, this divergence can be a more worrisome sign. On the other hand, the two-three basis point backing up in 10-year gilts seems to be more of consolidation after yesterday's large move. The 10-year gilt yield is off 28 bp over the
Complete Story »


Wednesday, 15 October 2014, 13:00 GMT
Thoughts On The Significance Of The U.K.'s Dim Sum Offering
By Marc Chandler:
On October 9, the UK announced it was beginning the launch a yuan-denominated bond, becoming the first sovereign, besides China, to do so. It is spurring talk that this is the death of the US dollar.
It trumps the fact that the recent official reserve data from the IMF showed the dollar's share of global reserves edged slightly higher in Q2, but is largely stable above 60% of global reserves. It doesn't matter than dollar is consolidating one of its most strongest rallies among the major foreign currencies in years. Is not the UK's yuan bond sales proof that the Chinese currency has arrived on the world stage, and is truly challenging the dollar for supremacy?
The UK appears to be raising 3 bln yuan (~$490 mln) in a three-year bond that pay about 2.7%. Both Moody's and S&P blessed it with the highest rating. A note with a similar
Complete Story »


Wednesday, 15 October 2014, 11:44 GMT
USD Boosted By Weak European And U.K. Data
By Dean Popplewell:
By Alfonso Esparza

The USD continues to recover after the Federal Reserve Minutes took the wind out of its sails last week. Lower industrial production out of Japan (?1.9%), a flat German CPI (0.0%) were USD positive releases this morning. Even though the European Central President spoke at an event, Mario Draghi stuck to the matter at hand. Speaking at the Statistics Conference in Frankfurt the ECB president he outlined the importance of the continuing integration between the central bank regulatory functions and the data. The market is awaiting the US Retail Sales figures to decide if the USD will continue to recover versus the EUR and other major currencies.
The Swiss ZEW report came in way under expectations at ?30.7 with a previous print of ?7.7. The survey measures the optimism of analysts and investors at large institutions for the next six months. A reading above 0.0 is optimistic.
Complete Story »


Wednesday, 15 October 2014, 11:07 GMT
Markets Still Struggling To Stabilize
By Marc Chandler:
The US equity market was unable to sustain early gains yesterday and, although several Asian markets posted minor gains, Europe is seeing red again today. US equities are called lower as well. The European bond market rally continues, except for Greece, where the 10-year yield has risen about 70 bp over the past five sessions.
The EU seems to be resisting an early Greek exit from its aid program. Its stance threatens to cut off one of the legs of Prime Minister Samaras' political strategies to avoid going to the polls next year, in which Syriza could win.
Meanwhile, the continued decline in oil prices and the knock on effects on inflation expectations continue to weigh on sentiment. Breakevens (difference in yields between the inflation linked bonds and conventional bonds) continue to slide. In the US, the 5 and 10-year breakevens are about 1.51% and 1.92% respectfully. These are the
Complete Story »

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